Unreliable Uncertainty Estimates with Monte Carlo Dropout

arXiv — cs.LGThursday, December 18, 2025 at 5:00:00 AM
  • A recent study has highlighted the limitations of Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) in providing reliable uncertainty estimates for machine learning models, particularly in safety-critical applications. The research indicates that MCD fails to accurately capture true uncertainty, especially in extrapolation and interpolation scenarios, compared to Bayesian models like Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Neural Networks.
  • This finding is significant as it raises concerns about the efficacy of MCD in critical domains where accurate uncertainty quantification is essential for decision-making. The inability of MCD to reflect true uncertainty could lead to suboptimal outcomes in applications relying on machine learning predictions.
  • The ongoing discourse in the field of machine learning emphasizes the need for robust uncertainty quantification methods. While MCD has been a popular approximation for Bayesian inference, emerging frameworks such as Bayesian Neural Networks and variational methods are gaining traction for their potential to enhance predictive accuracy and reliability, particularly in data-scarce environments.
— via World Pulse Now AI Editorial System

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