CRPS-LAM: Regional ensemble weather forecasting from matching marginals

arXiv — cs.LGThursday, November 27, 2025 at 5:00:00 AM
  • The CRPS-LAM model has been introduced as a new probabilistic forecasting tool for regional weather, utilizing machine learning techniques to enhance the efficiency of Limited-Area Modeling (LAM). This model achieves sampling speeds up to 39 times faster than traditional diffusion-based models while maintaining low error rates, as demonstrated on the MEPS regional dataset.
  • This development is significant as it addresses the computational challenges faced by existing weather forecasting models, potentially leading to more accurate and timely weather predictions. The ability to generate ensemble members in a single forward pass could revolutionize how meteorologists approach forecasting.
  • The introduction of CRPS-LAM highlights a broader trend in machine learning towards improving efficiency and accuracy in various applications, including bias mitigation in models and enhanced data processing in wireless communications. As machine learning continues to evolve, its integration into diverse fields underscores the importance of optimizing algorithms to meet specific objectives.
— via World Pulse Now AI Editorial System

Was this article worth reading? Share it

Recommended apps based on your readingExplore all apps
Continue Readings
Training and Evaluation of Guideline-Based Medical Reasoning in LLMs
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
A recent study has focused on training large language models (LLMs) to adhere to medical consensus guidelines in their reasoning and prediction processes. This approach aims to enhance the accuracy and trustworthiness of LLMs in medical applications, addressing a critical gap in the field where explanations for predictions have often been overlooked.
Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Steel Development: A Computational Framework and CCT Diagram Modelling
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
A new computational framework has been introduced that integrates physics-informed machine learning (ML) to develop a continuous cooling transformation (CCT) model for steel. This model, trained on a dataset of 4,100 diagrams, aims to enhance the understanding of the relationship between chemical composition, processing parameters, and resulting microstructure and properties of steel.
Marginalize, Rather than Impute: Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Incomplete Data
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
A new study published on arXiv presents a novel approach to probabilistic wind power forecasting that addresses the issue of missing data, which often arises from sensor faults or communication outages. The method proposes a joint generative model that learns from incomplete data, allowing for forecasts that marginalize unobserved features rather than relying on imputation techniques.
Calibrating Geophysical Predictions under Constrained Probabilistic Distributions
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
A recent study has introduced a distribution-informed learning framework to enhance geophysical predictions, particularly in complex dynamical systems like climate processes. This approach leverages prior knowledge of marginal distributions to complement short-term observations, addressing challenges posed by sparse data and the sensitive nature of these systems.