Predicting the Performance of Black-box LLMs through Follow-up Queries

arXiv — cs.LGTuesday, December 2, 2025 at 5:00:00 AM
  • A recent study has introduced a method for predicting the performance of black-box language models (LLMs) by utilizing follow-up queries to assess their outputs. This approach involves training a linear model on the probabilities of responses, which has shown to accurately predict model correctness on various benchmarks, even outperforming traditional white-box predictors.
  • This development is significant as it enhances the reliability of LLMs in applications such as question-answering and reasoning, where understanding model behavior is crucial. By providing a means to evaluate these models without access to their internal workings, it opens new avenues for their deployment in sensitive or critical tasks.
  • The findings highlight a growing trend in AI research focusing on improving the interpretability and reliability of LLMs. As these models become more integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to assess their outputs accurately is essential. This aligns with ongoing discussions about model alignment, evaluation frameworks, and the need for robust methodologies to mitigate biases in AI systems.
— via World Pulse Now AI Editorial System

Was this article worth reading? Share it

Recommended apps based on your readingExplore all apps
Continue Readings
AI agents struggle with “why” questions: a memory-based fix
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
Recent advancements in AI have highlighted the struggles of large language models (LLMs) with “why” questions, as they often forget context and fail to reason effectively. The introduction of MAGMA, a multi-graph memory system, aims to address these limitations by enhancing LLMs' ability to retain context over time and improve reasoning related to causality and meaning.
Attention Projection Mixing and Exogenous Anchors
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A new study introduces ExoFormer, a transformer model that utilizes exogenous anchor projections to enhance attention mechanisms, addressing the challenge of balancing stability and computational efficiency in deep learning architectures. This model demonstrates improved performance metrics, including a notable increase in downstream accuracy and data efficiency compared to traditional internal-anchor transformers.
User-Oriented Multi-Turn Dialogue Generation with Tool Use at scale
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A new framework for user-oriented multi-turn dialogue generation has been developed, leveraging large reasoning models (LRMs) to create dynamic, domain-specific tools for task completion. This approach addresses the limitations of existing datasets that rely on static toolsets, enhancing the interaction quality in human-agent collaborations.
D$^2$Plan: Dual-Agent Dynamic Global Planning for Complex Retrieval-Augmented Reasoning
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
The recent introduction of D$^2$Plan, a Dual-Agent Dynamic Global Planning paradigm, aims to enhance complex retrieval-augmented reasoning in large language models (LLMs). This framework addresses critical challenges such as ineffective search chain construction and reasoning hijacking by irrelevant evidence, through the collaboration of a Reasoner and a Purifier.
Detecting Mental Manipulation in Speech via Synthetic Multi-Speaker Dialogue
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A new study has introduced the SPEECHMENTALMANIP benchmark, marking the first exploration of mental manipulation detection in spoken dialogues, utilizing synthetic multi-speaker audio to enhance a text-based dataset. This research highlights the challenges of identifying manipulative speech tactics, revealing that models trained on audio exhibit lower recall compared to text.
RULERS: Locked Rubrics and Evidence-Anchored Scoring for Robust LLM Evaluation
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
The recent introduction of RULERS (Rubric Unification, Locking, and Evidence-anchored Robust Scoring) addresses challenges in evaluating large language models (LLMs) by transforming natural language rubrics into executable specifications, thereby enhancing the reliability of assessments.
QuantEval: A Benchmark for Financial Quantitative Tasks in Large Language Models
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
The introduction of QuantEval marks a significant advancement in evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) in financial quantitative tasks, focusing on knowledge-based question answering, mathematical reasoning, and strategy coding. This benchmark incorporates a backtesting framework that assesses the performance of model-generated strategies using financial metrics, providing a more realistic evaluation of LLM capabilities.
Rescind: Countering Image Misconduct in Biomedical Publications with Vision-Language and State-Space Modeling
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
A new framework named Rescind has been introduced to combat image manipulation in biomedical publications, addressing the challenges of detecting forgeries that arise from domain-specific artifacts and complex textures. This framework combines vision-language prompting with state-space modeling to enhance the detection and generation of biomedical image forgeries.

Ready to build your own newsroom?

Subscribe to unlock a personalised feed, podcasts, newsletters, and notifications tailored to the topics you actually care about