How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domains

arXiv — cs.CLWednesday, January 14, 2026 at 5:00:00 AM
  • A systematic benchmark has been introduced to evaluate the reliability of confidence estimators for Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) in high-stakes domains, highlighting the miscalibration issues that affect their outputs. The Reasoning Model Confidence estimation Benchmark (RMCB) comprises 347,496 reasoning traces from various LRMs, focusing on clinical, financial, legal, and mathematical reasoning.
  • This development is significant as it addresses the critical need for accurate confidence estimation in LRMs, which are increasingly utilized in sensitive areas where reliability is paramount. The benchmark aims to improve the understanding of how different representation-based methods perform in estimating confidence levels.
  • The introduction of RMCB reflects a growing recognition of the challenges faced by LRMs, including issues of overthinking and miscalibration, which have been noted in various studies. As the field evolves, there is an ongoing discourse about optimizing model performance while ensuring that reasoning capabilities are not compromised, particularly in multilingual contexts and complex problem-solving scenarios.
— via World Pulse Now AI Editorial System

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