Mind the Confidence Gap: Overconfidence, Calibration, and Distractor Effects in Large Language Models

arXiv — cs.CLMonday, December 15, 2025 at 5:00:00 AM
  • Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant capabilities in natural language processing; however, they often exhibit overconfidence, leading to discrepancies between predicted confidence and actual correctness. A recent study analyzed nine LLMs across three factual Question-Answering datasets, revealing that the integration of distractor prompts can enhance calibration, resulting in accuracy improvements of up to 460% and reductions in expected calibration error by up to 90%.
  • The findings are crucial as they highlight the potential risks associated with LLMs in critical decision-making scenarios, where miscalibration can lead to erroneous conclusions. By improving calibration through distractor prompts, the reliability of LLMs in various applications, including healthcare and finance, could be significantly enhanced, thereby increasing user trust and safety in automated systems.
  • This development underscores a broader concern regarding the reliability and consistency of LLMs, as other studies have pointed out issues such as incoherent beliefs and inconsistent actions within these models. The ongoing exploration of calibration, uncertainty quantification, and factual consistency reflects a growing recognition of the need for robust evaluation frameworks to ensure that LLMs can be effectively and safely integrated into real-world applications.
— via World Pulse Now AI Editorial System

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