arXiv:2605.27270v1 Announce Type: cross 
Abstract: Understanding how decision makers balance operational efficiency with environmental and ecological risks is central to vessel navigation. We model vessel speed as a control variable in a constrained optimization framework in which vessel operators balance multiple competing objectives, including transit efficiency, ice related navigational risk, and whale related ecological risk. The underlying risk parameters are estimated using over 14 million Automatic Identification System (AIS) observations from the United States Arctic (2010-2019), together with environmental covariates and spatially explicit whale density estimates. The framework incorporates a nonlinear risk objective, vessel heterogeneity, and regularization to ensure stable and interpretable results.The inferred trade offs reveal distinct decision making patterns across vessel groups and navigational statuses. Vessel types such as Tug Tow and Cargo balance operational speed with environmental and ecological considerations. In contrast, several vessel groups, including Fishing, Passenger, and Unspecified vessels, are strongly influenced by ice related risk, while Pleasure Craft and Tankers exhibit higher sensitivity to whale related risk. Across navigational status categories, similar heterogeneity is observed. The dominant status, under way using engine, displays a clear trade off, whereas other statuses, such as aground and undefined, are strongly shaped by ice related constraints. Statuses including restricted maneuverability and engaged in fishing exhibit higher estimated sensitivity to whale related risk, though with substantial uncertainty.Sensitivity analysis indicates that increasing whale-related risk weighting produces limited changes in model-implied optimal speed, whereas increasing ice-related risk leads to more consistent reductions.

أظهرت دراسة حديثة نمذجة سرعة السفن كمتغير تحكم في إطار تحسين مقيد، مع التركيز على الشحن في القطب الشمالي. تسلط الضوء على كيفية موازنة مشغلي السفن بين الكفاءة التشغيلية والمخاطر البيئية، وخاصة التنقل في الجليد والمخاوف البيئية المتعلقة بالحيتان، باستخدام بيانات من أكثر من 14 مليون ملاحظة لنظام التعريف التلقائي من 2010 إلى 2019.

Un estudio reciente ha modelado la velocidad de los buques como una variable de control en un marco de optimización restringida, centrándose en la navegación en el Ártico. Destaca cómo los operadores de buques equilibran la eficiencia operativa y los riesgos ambientales, particularmente la navegación en hielo y las preocupaciones ecológicas relacionadas con las ballenas, utilizando datos de más de 14 millones de observaciones AIS de 2010 a 2019.

Une étude récente a modélisé la vitesse des navires comme une variable de contrôle dans un cadre d'optimisation contraint, en se concentrant sur la navigation dans l'Arctique. Elle met en lumière comment les opérateurs de navires équilibrent l'efficacité opérationnelle et les risques environnementaux, notamment la navigation dans la glace et les préoccupations écologiques liées aux baleines, en utilisant des données provenant de plus de 14 millions d'observations AIS de 2010 à 2019.

A recent study has modeled vessel speed as a control variable in a constrained optimization framework, focusing on Arctic shipping. It highlights how vessel operators navigate the balance between operational efficiency and environmental risks, particularly ice navigation and whale-related ecological concerns, using data from over 14 million AIS observations from 2010 to 2019.