arXiv:2511.20105v1 Announce Type: new 
Abstract: This study investigates the application of the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) model for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting of Bitcoin realized volatility. Utilizing a comprehensive set of 69 predictors -- encompassing market, behavioral, and macroeconomic indicators -- we evaluate the performance of LGBM-based models and compare them with both econometric and machine learning baselines. For probabilistic forecasting, we explore two quantile-based approaches: direct quantile regression using the pinball loss function, and a residual simulation method that transforms point forecasts into predictive distributions. To identify the main drivers of volatility, we employ gain-based and permutation feature importance techniques, consistently highlighting the significance of trading volume, lagged volatility measures, investor attention, and market capitalization. The results demonstrate that LGBM models effectively capture the nonlinear and high-variance characteristics of cryptocurrency markets while providing interpretable insights into the underlying volatility dynamics.

تم إجراء دراسة حول تطبيق نموذج Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) لتوقع تقلبات البيتكوين المدركة، باستخدام 69 متغيرًا تتضمن مؤشرات سوقية وماكرو اقتصادية. تقيم الدراسة أداء نماذج LGBM مقارنة بالنماذج الاقتصادية ونماذج التعلم الآلي، مستكشفةً طرق التوقع الحتمية والاحتمالية، وتبرز المحركات الرئيسية للتقلبات مثل حجم التداول واهتمام المستثمرين.

Se ha realizado un estudio sobre la aplicación del modelo Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) para la previsión de la volatilidad realizada del Bitcoin, utilizando 69 predictores que incluyen indicadores de mercado y macroeconómicos. La investigación evalúa el rendimiento de los modelos basados en LGBM en comparación con modelos econométricos y de aprendizaje automático, explorando métodos de previsión tanto deterministas como probabilísticos, y destaca los principales impulsores de la volatilidad como el volumen de operaciones y la atención de los inversores.

Une étude a été réalisée sur l'application du modèle Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) pour prévoir la volatilité réalisée du Bitcoin, en utilisant 69 prédicteurs, y compris des indicateurs de marché et macroéconomiques. La recherche évalue la performance des modèles LGBM par rapport à des modèles économétriques et d'apprentissage automatique, en explorant à la fois des méthodes de prévision déterministes et probabilistes, et met en évidence les principaux moteurs de la volatilité tels que le volume des échanges et l'attention des investisseurs.

A study has been conducted on the application of the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) model for forecasting Bitcoin's realized volatility, utilizing 69 predictors including market and macroeconomic indicators. The research evaluates LGBM's performance against econometric and machine learning models, exploring both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting methods, and highlights key drivers of volatility such as trading volume and investor attention.

Multivariate Forecasting of Bitcoin Volatility with Gradient Boosting: Deterministic, Probabilistic, and Feature Importance Perspectives

<h2>
  
  
  TL;DR
</h2>

<h3>
  
  
  DeDe is a minimal, Ethereum-based protocol for physical delivery.
</h3>

<p>No apps, no marketplace, no routing engine, only trustless escrow and deterministic settlement.<br>
It lets anyone build P2P delivery networks without central control or intermediaries.</p>




<h3>
  
  
  Why this matters in Brazil
</h3>

<p><strong>Brazil has one of the most active P2P commerce ecosystems in the world, powered by Pix.</strong><br>
Pix enables instant payment, but it does not provide trustless escrow or delivery confirmation.</p>

<p>DeDe fills this gap by offering a neutral, programmable settlement layer for physical delivery, independent of platforms or intermediaries.</p>

<ul>
<li>DeDe Protocol is a minimal, self-contained, production-ready settlement layer for decentralized delivery networks.</li>
<li>Peer-to-Peer Parcel -&gt; Pickup -&gt; Dropoff -&gt; Delivery confirmation.</li>
<li>DeFi/CeFi Agnostic: Easy integration of delivery settlement for apps, fintech providers, and payment platforms within existing workflows.</li>
</ul>




<h3>
  
  
  Motivation
</h3>

<p>We have decentralized infrastructure for:</p>

<ul>
<li>    Money (Bitcoin)</li>
<li>    Communication (Matrix)</li>
<li>    Compute (Ethereum)</li>
<li>    Privacy (Tor)</li>
</ul>

<p>But physical delivery still a key part of human coordination remains centralized, fragile, and opaque.</p>

<p>Postal systems are slow, expensive, often fail to deliver, and structurally incompatible with privacy.<br>
Meanwhile, enormous underutilized capacity exists in everyday human movement:<br>
people walk, bike, drive, and commute along routes that could carry parcels.</p>

<p>DeDe lets anyone tap into that movement.<br>
It enables real-world delivery as a trustless, peer-to-peer settlement flow, not a logistics monopoly.</p>

<p><strong>Sender → Escrow → Carrier Pickup → Dropoff → Finalize → Settlement</strong></p>




<h3>
  
  
  What It Is
</h3>

<p><strong>DeDe is not an app, not a marketplace, and not a company.</strong><br>
It is a small Ethereum smart contract protocol that allows:</p>

<ul>
<li>    Senders to register a parcel NFT + escrow</li>
<li>    Carriers to voluntarily pick it up</li>
<li>    Delivery to be confirmed (opt-in)</li>
<li>    Settlement to be finalized without trusted intermediaries</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>The protocol governs:</strong></p>

<ul>
<li>    Who gets paid</li>
<li>    Under what conditions</li>
<li>    How funds are held and released</li>
<li>    Immutable protocol fee routing</li>
<li>    Minimal incentive alignment</li>
</ul>

<p>All logistics, routing, and app-specific behavior happens off-chain.<br>
Architecture</p>




<h3>
  
  
  Core contracts:
</h3>

<ol>
<li><strong>ParcelCore</strong></li>
</ol>

<ul>
<li>    ERC-721 parcels with deterministic lifecycle states</li>
<li>    Immutable protocol fee (e.g. 0.5%)</li>
<li>    Support for platform-level BPS fee schedules</li>
<li>    Finalization window (e.g. 72h after pickup)</li>
</ul>

<ol>
<li><strong>Escrow</strong></li>
</ol>

<ul>
<li>    Holds ETH/ERC-20 funds keyed by parcelId</li>
<li>    Releases funds to carrier, protocol treasury, platform treasury,   and finalizer tip</li>
<li>    Enforces deterministic payout logic</li>
</ul>

<ol>
<li><strong>AStarSignerRegistryStaked</strong></li>
</ol>

<ul>
<li>    (Optional) registers routing signers with stake</li>
<li>    Ties dropoff event to a verifiable off-chain route hash</li>
<li>    Allows eventual zkRoute integrations</li>
</ul>

<p>All state transitions are public and auditable.<br>
DeDe does not include any GPS, KYC, login systems, or metadata on-chain.</p>

<h3>
  
  
  On-chain Privacy Model
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    On-chain: only tokenId, state enum, and lifecycle timestamps</li>
<li>    Off-chain: pickup/dropoff locations, photo proofs, routing paths</li>
<li>    Metadata is stored in NFT, encrypted, or referenced via IPFS 
hashes
Ethereum only sees a hash</li>
</ul>




<h3>
  
  
  What Makes DeDe Unique
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    It’s a protocol, not a platform</li>
<li>    No centralized operator, job board, or trusted intermediary</li>
<li>    Anyone can build an app, mint a parcel, or pick one up</li>
<li>    Payments settle only if both sides confirm (or finalize automatically)</li>
<li>    Protocol fee is immutable, finalizer tip is capped, all logic is deterministic</li>
</ul>

<p>No pricing engine.<br>
No identity layer.<br>
No assignment logic.<br>
Just neutral rails.</p>

<h3>
  
  
  Use Cases
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    P2P delivery during commutes (side income for regular people)</li>
<li>    Local business delivery without contracts or apps</li>
<li>    Decentralized logistics experiments (DAOs, disaster relief, rural mobility)</li>
<li>    Trust-minimized gig networks in low-trust regions</li>
</ul>

<h3>
  
  
  Economics
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    Protocol fee: immutable (e.g. 0.5%)</li>
<li>    Platform fee: configurable, set by each integrator</li>
<li>    Finalizer tip: small % (e.g. 0.05%), capped</li>
<li>    DeDe does not reduce escrow value over time (no built-in decay)</li>
<li>    Settlement is voluntary; payment is conditional on mutual confirmation</li>
</ul>




<h3>
  
  
  Why Ethereum?
</h3>

<p>DeDe works best when:</p>

<ul>
<li>    The settlement layer is public, neutral, auditable</li>
<li>    Applications are permissionless and forkable</li>
<li>    The infrastructure isn’t subject to any central actor’s control</li>
</ul>

<h3>
  
  
  Deployed to Ethereum Mainnet
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    <strong>ParcelCore</strong>: 0xeF1D4970c3B988840B13761Ec4FBb85106d789F8</li>
<li>    <strong>Escrow</strong>: 0x834317eFB2E6eE362a63474837398086cC302934</li>
<li>    <strong>AStarSignerRegistryStaked</strong>: 0x311A4c3Ed79D4467C55dd7CEE0C731501DF3f161</li>
<li>    <strong>protocolTreasury</strong>: 0x9C34d6a6BF1257A9e36758583cDC36F4cE2fA78F</li>
</ul>

<h3>
  
  
  Related Work / Inspiration
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    Matrix (as infra for decentralized messaging)</li>
<li>    Monero (for privacy guarantees in adversarial environments)</li>
<li>    Tor / IPFS / Nostr (for neutrality under pressure)</li>
<li>    Ethereum itself (as settlement infrastructure)</li>
</ul>

<h3>
  
  
  Future Directions
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    zkDeliveryProofs (optional: SNARKs for delivery receipt)</li>
<li>    L2 deployment for micropayments</li>
<li>    Local delivery DAO coordination</li>
<li>    Indexers / GraphQL APIs / “DeDeScan” explorer</li>
<li>    Mobile UX kits and white-label apps</li>
<li>    Monero bridge / atomic swaps for cross-chain delivery privacy</li>
</ul>




<h3>
  
  
  Further Reading
</h3>

<p><a href="https://github.com/pablo-chacon/dede-protocol/blob/main/WHITEPAPER.md" rel="noopener noreferrer">DeDe Protocol Whitepaper</a></p>

<p><a href="https://github.com/pablo-chacon/dede-protocol" rel="noopener noreferrer">DeDe Protocol Repository</a></p>

<p><a href="https://medium.com/@ekarlsson66/dede-the-delivery-rail-for-a-free-world-e7be944b90fc" rel="noopener noreferrer">Medium Story</a></p>

تم تقديم بروتوكول DeDe كحل بسيط قائم على Ethereum مصمم للتسليم الفعلي بدون ثقة، مما يتيح إنشاء شبكات تسليم من نظير إلى نظير دون الحاجة إلى السيطرة المركزية أو الوسطاء. يركز هذا البروتوكول على توفير طبقة تسوية قابلة للبرمجة تسهل تأكيد التسليم وخدمات الضمان، مما يعالج الثغرات في الأنظمة الحالية مثل Pix في البرازيل، التي تقدم مدفوعات فورية ولكن تفتقر إلى هذه الميزات.

Se ha presentado el Protocolo DeDe como una solución mínima basada en Ethereum, diseñada para la entrega física sin confianza, permitiendo la creación de redes de entrega de igual a igual sin necesidad de control central o intermediarios. Este protocolo se centra en proporcionar una capa de liquidación programable que facilita la confirmación de entrega y los servicios de custodia, abordando las lagunas en sistemas existentes como Pix en Brasil, que ofrece pagos instantáneos pero carece de estas características.

Le protocole DeDe a été introduit comme une solution minimale basée sur Ethereum, conçue pour la livraison physique sans confiance, permettant la création de réseaux de livraison peer-to-peer sans besoin de contrôle central ou d'intermédiaires. Ce protocole se concentre sur la fourniture d'une couche de règlement programmable qui facilite la confirmation de livraison et les services d'entiercement, comblant les lacunes des systèmes existants comme Pix au Brésil, qui offre des paiements instantanés mais manque de ces fonctionnalités.

DeDe Protocol has been introduced as a minimal, Ethereum-based solution designed for trustless physical delivery, enabling the creation of peer-to-peer delivery networks without the need for central control or intermediaries. This protocol focuses on providing a programmable settlement layer that facilitates delivery confirmation and escrow services, addressing gaps in existing systems like Brazil's Pix, which offers instant payments but lacks these features.

Multivariate Forecasting of Bitcoin Volatility with Gradient Boosting: Deterministic, Probabilistic, and Feature Importance Perspectives

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