The Illusion of Certainty: Uncertainty quantification for LLMs fails under ambiguity

arXiv — cs.CLFriday, November 7, 2025 at 5:00:00 AM

The Illusion of Certainty: Uncertainty quantification for LLMs fails under ambiguity

A recent study highlights significant flaws in uncertainty quantification methods for large language models, revealing that these models struggle with ambiguity in real-world language. This matters because accurate uncertainty estimation is crucial for deploying these models reliably, and the current methods fail to address the inherent uncertainties in language, potentially leading to misleading outcomes in practical applications.
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