Performance of Conformal Prediction in Capturing Aleatoric Uncertainty

arXiv — cs.LGMonday, November 24, 2025 at 5:00:00 AM
  • Conformal prediction, a model-agnostic approach, is being evaluated for its effectiveness in capturing aleatoric uncertainty, which refers to the inherent ambiguity in datasets due to overlapping classes. This investigation focuses on the correlation between prediction set sizes and the distinct labels assigned by human annotators, aiming to validate the expected performance of conformal predictors in uncertain environments.
  • The findings from this research are significant as they could enhance the reliability of prediction sets in various applications, particularly in fields where uncertainty quantification is critical, such as medical imaging and diagnosis. By establishing a clearer understanding of how conformal predictors operate, stakeholders can make more informed decisions based on these models.
  • This study contributes to ongoing discussions in the AI community regarding uncertainty quantification and model performance. As the demand for robust predictive models grows, the ability to accurately capture and communicate uncertainty becomes increasingly important. The exploration of conformal prediction aligns with broader trends in AI research, focusing on improving model interpretability and reliability across diverse applications.
— via World Pulse Now AI Editorial System

Was this article worth reading? Share it

Recommended apps based on your readingExplore all apps
Continue Readings
Attention Projection Mixing and Exogenous Anchors
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A new study introduces ExoFormer, a transformer model that utilizes exogenous anchor projections to enhance attention mechanisms, addressing the challenge of balancing stability and computational efficiency in deep learning architectures. This model demonstrates improved performance metrics, including a notable increase in downstream accuracy and data efficiency compared to traditional internal-anchor transformers.
User-Oriented Multi-Turn Dialogue Generation with Tool Use at scale
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A new framework for user-oriented multi-turn dialogue generation has been developed, leveraging large reasoning models (LRMs) to create dynamic, domain-specific tools for task completion. This approach addresses the limitations of existing datasets that rely on static toolsets, enhancing the interaction quality in human-agent collaborations.
Detecting Mental Manipulation in Speech via Synthetic Multi-Speaker Dialogue
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A new study has introduced the SPEECHMENTALMANIP benchmark, marking the first exploration of mental manipulation detection in spoken dialogues, utilizing synthetic multi-speaker audio to enhance a text-based dataset. This research highlights the challenges of identifying manipulative speech tactics, revealing that models trained on audio exhibit lower recall compared to text.
RULERS: Locked Rubrics and Evidence-Anchored Scoring for Robust LLM Evaluation
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
The recent introduction of RULERS (Rubric Unification, Locking, and Evidence-anchored Robust Scoring) addresses challenges in evaluating large language models (LLMs) by transforming natural language rubrics into executable specifications, thereby enhancing the reliability of assessments.
Rescind: Countering Image Misconduct in Biomedical Publications with Vision-Language and State-Space Modeling
PositiveArtificial Intelligence
A new framework named Rescind has been introduced to combat image manipulation in biomedical publications, addressing the challenges of detecting forgeries that arise from domain-specific artifacts and complex textures. This framework combines vision-language prompting with state-space modeling to enhance the detection and generation of biomedical image forgeries.
Whose Facts Win? LLM Source Preferences under Knowledge Conflicts
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A recent study examined the preferences of large language models (LLMs) in resolving knowledge conflicts, revealing a tendency to favor information from credible sources like government and newspaper outlets over social media. This research utilized a novel framework to analyze how these source preferences influence LLM outputs.
Predicting Region of Interest in Human Visual Search Based on Statistical Texture and Gabor Features
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A recent study published on arXiv investigates the relationship between Gabor-based features and gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) texture features in modeling human visual search behavior. The research proposes two feature-combination pipelines to enhance predictions of human fixation regions using simulated digital breast tomosynthesis images.
Instance-Aligned Captions for Explainable Video Anomaly Detection
NeutralArtificial Intelligence
A new framework for explainable video anomaly detection (VAD) has been introduced, featuring instance-aligned captions that connect textual claims to specific object instances, enhancing the reliability of explanations in safety-critical applications. This approach addresses the limitations of existing methods that often produce incomplete or misaligned descriptions, particularly in scenarios involving multiple entities.

Ready to build your own newsroom?

Subscribe to unlock a personalised feed, podcasts, newsletters, and notifications tailored to the topics you actually care about