Only An Asteroid Can Sink MSTR’s Bitcoin Bet, CryptoQuant CEO Says

BitMine, a treasury firm focused on Ethereum, has announced the cryptocurrency industry's first-ever dividend payment, marking a significant milestone in the evolving landscape of digital assets. This development comes amidst a tumultuous year for the cryptocurrency sector, characterized by fluctuating performances of digital asset treasuries (DATs).

Citron Research has marked one year since it took a short position against Strategy, also known as MicroStrategy, while simultaneously going long on Bitcoin. The firm has defended its stance, highlighting the contrasting performance of its investments over the past year.

Strategy Inc., associated with Michael Saylor's Bitcoin investments, is at risk of being removed from major stock indexes, which could trigger forced selling worth billions and alter investor access to Bitcoin. This potential delisting comes amid significant declines in Bitcoin's value, raising concerns about the company's financial stability.

Bitcoin has entered a significant bearish phase, with prices dropping from over $126,000 to approximately $83,790, marking a 34% decline and erasing around $715 billion in market value. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index has fallen to 20 out of 100, indicating weak buying momentum and reduced liquidity. The cryptocurrency closed below its 365-day moving average, suggesting a more bearish market than previous corrections.

Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of MicroStrategy, has responded publicly amid growing concerns regarding the potential exclusion of the company from MSCI indices, following a warning from JPMorgan. This situation has intensified scrutiny on Saylor's cryptocurrency strategy, particularly as it could lead to significant financial outflows.

Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy (MSTR), has publicly dismissed concerns regarding potential outflows linked to MSCI indices, asserting the company's strong commitment to Bitcoin. He highlighted that Strategy operates a $500 million software business alongside a $7.7 billion Bitcoin-backed digital credit program, reinforcing confidence in their Bitcoin strategy.

Jeff Park, Partner and CIO at ProCap BTC, discussed the recent Bitcoin price drop to around $85,000 in a conversation with Anthony Pompliano. He argued that this decline could signify a shift in the market narrative, suggesting that the traditional four-year halving cycle is becoming less relevant. Park believes that a new cycle aligned with institutional investment trends may be emerging, indicating a fundamental change in Bitcoin's market dynamics.

In November 2024, Bitcoin's price dropped over 20%, primarily influenced by the US market, while Asian traders continued to buy the dip, indicating a significant regional sentiment divide. Long-term holders, including MicroStrategy, and positive on-chain data suggest that this price movement is a correction within a bull market rather than the onset of a new crypto winter.