EU Lowers Outlook for 2026 on Higher-Than-Forecast U.S. Tariffs

Japan and Switzerland's economies have contracted, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs on exports. The European Commission has raised its growth forecast for the eurozone, citing better-than-expected economic performance in the first nine months of the year. This growth was driven by a surge in exports and strong investment in equipment and intangible assets, particularly in Ireland. The continued growth in the third quarter indicates resilience in the European economy despite challenges.

The U.S. is making significant efforts to establish rare earth supply chains both domestically and internationally as it faces China's substantial control over these critical materials. This initiative is part of a broader competitive landscape referred to as 'Cold War 2.0.' The U.S. aims to reduce its dependence on China for rare earths, which are essential for various technologies and industries.

Grant Thornton International Ltd. is exploring options for its Indian unit, which is valued at $2 billion. A senior executive in India indicated that the company is considering a potential minority stake sale or a merger with its operations in the US or Europe.

India's trade deficit reached a record high in October, driven by a surge in imports linked to increased domestic demand following a reduction in consumption tax. In contrast, exports experienced a decline, largely attributed to tariff policies imposed by the United States. This situation highlights the challenges faced by India's trade balance amid changing global trade dynamics.

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that threats to Eurozone financial stability remain elevated despite the avoidance of a large-scale trade war. He emphasized ongoing uncertainty regarding government policies that could impact the financial system. This statement reflects the ECB's cautious stance amid fluctuating economic conditions and highlights the importance of stable governance for maintaining financial confidence in the Eurozone.

The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that threats to Eurozone financial stability remain elevated despite the avoidance of a large-scale trade war. He emphasized that there is still significant uncertainty regarding government policies that could impact the financial system. This statement highlights ongoing concerns about the economic environment in the Eurozone and the potential risks that could arise from policy changes.

U.S. data flow is set to resume, which is expected to have significant implications for the markets. Investors are closely monitoring Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, as it could influence market trends and investor sentiment. The anticipation surrounding Nvidia's performance highlights the company's critical role in the tech sector and its potential impact on broader economic indicators.

Global oil markets are facing concerns about a potential glut, yet there is some support for producers due to increased buying from China and India. This uptick in demand is largely influenced by a series of US sanctions targeting Russian energy exports, which have altered the dynamics of the market.