UK shoppers are feeling slightly more optimistic about their finances and the economy, according to new data—but that cautious uptick in confidence is being overshadowed by worries over how the ongoing Middle East conflict could disrupt global trade and push prices higher. It’s a fragile recovery, with households still squeezed by high costs and now bracing for potential ripple effects from overseas.

Editor’s Note: Consumer mood is a real-time barometer of economic health—when people feel better about spending, it usually signals growth. But this glimmer of optimism could fizzle fast if geopolitical tensions drive up energy or food costs, hitting wallets all over again. It’s a reminder of how interconnected (and shaky) the global economy really is.