Probing forced responses and causality in data-driven climate emulators: conceptual limitations and the role of reduced-order models

arXiv — cs.LGThursday, November 13, 2025 at 5:00:00 AM
The study on data-driven climate emulators addresses a significant challenge in climate science: the inability of current neural models to accurately reproduce forced responses, which are essential for causal studies. By analyzing a simplified dynamical system and employing linear response theory, the researchers provide insights into the limitations of these models. They emphasize that the success of emulators in capturing perturbed statistics hinges on identifying appropriate coarse-grained representations and careful parameterizations of unresolved processes. This research advocates for reduced-order models tailored to specific processes and scales, presenting them as valuable alternatives to general-purpose emulators. The findings are particularly relevant for developing neural models aimed at understanding surface temperature fields and radiative fluxes, thereby enhancing our ability to study climate dynamics and responses to external influences.
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