arXiv:2512.05402v1 Announce Type: new 
Abstract: Bitcoin mining hardware acquisition requires strategic timing due to volatile markets, rapid technological obsolescence, and protocol-driven revenue cycles. Despite mining's evolution into a capital-intensive industry, there is little guidance on when to purchase new Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) hardware, and no prior computational frameworks address this decision problem. We address this gap by formulating hardware acquisition as a time series classification task, predicting whether purchasing ASIC machines yields profitable (Return on Investment (ROI) >= 1), marginal (0 < ROI < 1), or unprofitable (ROI <= 0) returns within one year. We propose MineROI-Net, an open source Transformer-based architecture designed to capture multi-scale temporal patterns in mining profitability. Evaluated on data from 20 ASIC miners released between 2015 and 2024 across diverse market regimes, MineROI-Net outperforms LSTM-based and TSLANet baselines, achieving 83.7% accuracy and 83.1% macro F1-score. The model demonstrates strong economic relevance, achieving 93.6% precision in detecting unprofitable periods and 98.5% precision for profitable ones, while avoiding misclassification of profitable scenarios as unprofitable and vice versa. These results indicate that MineROI-Net offers a practical, data-driven tool for timing mining hardware acquisitions, potentially reducing financial risk in capital-intensive mining operations. The model is available through: https://github.com/AMAAI-Lab/MineROI-Net.

تم تطوير إطار عمل جديد يسمى MineROI-Net للتنبؤ بالعائد على الاستثمار (ROI) لمعدات تعدين البيتكوين، مما يعالج التحديات التي تطرحها تقلبات السوق والتغيرات التكنولوجية السريعة. يصنف هذا النموذج القائم على التعلم العميق عمليات شراء أجهزة ASIC المحتملة إلى فئات مربحة أو هامشية أو غير مربحة، بناءً على بيانات تاريخية من 20 جهاز تعدين تم إصدارها بين عامي 2015 و2024.

Se ha desarrollado un nuevo marco llamado MineROI-Net para predecir el retorno de la inversión (ROI) en hardware de minería de Bitcoin, abordando los desafíos planteados por la volatilidad del mercado y los rápidos cambios tecnológicos. Este modelo de aprendizaje profundo clasifica las posibles compras de hardware ASIC en categorías rentables, marginales o no rentables, basándose en datos históricos de 20 mineros lanzados entre 2015 y 2024.

Un nouveau cadre nommé MineROI-Net a été développé pour prédire le retour sur investissement (ROI) des matériels de minage de Bitcoin, répondant aux défis posés par la volatilité du marché et les changements technologiques rapides. Ce modèle d'apprentissage profond classe les achats potentiels de matériel ASIC en catégories rentables, marginales ou non rentables, en se basant sur des données historiques de 20 mineurs publiés entre 2015 et 2024.

A new framework named MineROI-Net has been developed to predict the return on investment (ROI) for Bitcoin mining hardware, addressing the challenges posed by market volatility and rapid technological changes. This deep learning model classifies potential ASIC hardware purchases into profitable, marginal, or unprofitable categories based on historical data from 20 miners released between 2015 and 2024.

Smart Timing for Mining: A Deep Learning Framework for Bitcoin Hardware ROI Prediction

<h2>
  
  
  TL;DR
</h2>

<h3>
  
  
  DeDe is a minimal, Ethereum-based protocol for physical delivery.
</h3>

<p>No apps, no marketplace, no routing engine, only trustless escrow and deterministic settlement.<br>
It lets anyone build P2P delivery networks without central control or intermediaries.</p>




<h3>
  
  
  Why this matters in Brazil
</h3>

<p><strong>Brazil has one of the most active P2P commerce ecosystems in the world, powered by Pix.</strong><br>
Pix enables instant payment, but it does not provide trustless escrow or delivery confirmation.</p>

<p>DeDe fills this gap by offering a neutral, programmable settlement layer for physical delivery, independent of platforms or intermediaries.</p>

<ul>
<li>DeDe Protocol is a minimal, self-contained, production-ready settlement layer for decentralized delivery networks.</li>
<li>Peer-to-Peer Parcel -&gt; Pickup -&gt; Dropoff -&gt; Delivery confirmation.</li>
<li>DeFi/CeFi Agnostic: Easy integration of delivery settlement for apps, fintech providers, and payment platforms within existing workflows.</li>
</ul>




<h3>
  
  
  Motivation
</h3>

<p>We have decentralized infrastructure for:</p>

<ul>
<li>    Money (Bitcoin)</li>
<li>    Communication (Matrix)</li>
<li>    Compute (Ethereum)</li>
<li>    Privacy (Tor)</li>
</ul>

<p>But physical delivery still a key part of human coordination remains centralized, fragile, and opaque.</p>

<p>Postal systems are slow, expensive, often fail to deliver, and structurally incompatible with privacy.<br>
Meanwhile, enormous underutilized capacity exists in everyday human movement:<br>
people walk, bike, drive, and commute along routes that could carry parcels.</p>

<p>DeDe lets anyone tap into that movement.<br>
It enables real-world delivery as a trustless, peer-to-peer settlement flow, not a logistics monopoly.</p>

<p><strong>Sender → Escrow → Carrier Pickup → Dropoff → Finalize → Settlement</strong></p>




<h3>
  
  
  What It Is
</h3>

<p><strong>DeDe is not an app, not a marketplace, and not a company.</strong><br>
It is a small Ethereum smart contract protocol that allows:</p>

<ul>
<li>    Senders to register a parcel NFT + escrow</li>
<li>    Carriers to voluntarily pick it up</li>
<li>    Delivery to be confirmed (opt-in)</li>
<li>    Settlement to be finalized without trusted intermediaries</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>The protocol governs:</strong></p>

<ul>
<li>    Who gets paid</li>
<li>    Under what conditions</li>
<li>    How funds are held and released</li>
<li>    Immutable protocol fee routing</li>
<li>    Minimal incentive alignment</li>
</ul>

<p>All logistics, routing, and app-specific behavior happens off-chain.<br>
Architecture</p>




<h3>
  
  
  Core contracts:
</h3>

<ol>
<li><strong>ParcelCore</strong></li>
</ol>

<ul>
<li>    ERC-721 parcels with deterministic lifecycle states</li>
<li>    Immutable protocol fee (e.g. 0.5%)</li>
<li>    Support for platform-level BPS fee schedules</li>
<li>    Finalization window (e.g. 72h after pickup)</li>
</ul>

<ol>
<li><strong>Escrow</strong></li>
</ol>

<ul>
<li>    Holds ETH/ERC-20 funds keyed by parcelId</li>
<li>    Releases funds to carrier, protocol treasury, platform treasury,   and finalizer tip</li>
<li>    Enforces deterministic payout logic</li>
</ul>

<ol>
<li><strong>AStarSignerRegistryStaked</strong></li>
</ol>

<ul>
<li>    (Optional) registers routing signers with stake</li>
<li>    Ties dropoff event to a verifiable off-chain route hash</li>
<li>    Allows eventual zkRoute integrations</li>
</ul>

<p>All state transitions are public and auditable.<br>
DeDe does not include any GPS, KYC, login systems, or metadata on-chain.</p>

<h3>
  
  
  On-chain Privacy Model
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    On-chain: only tokenId, state enum, and lifecycle timestamps</li>
<li>    Off-chain: pickup/dropoff locations, photo proofs, routing paths</li>
<li>    Metadata is stored in NFT, encrypted, or referenced via IPFS 
hashes
Ethereum only sees a hash</li>
</ul>




<h3>
  
  
  What Makes DeDe Unique
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    It’s a protocol, not a platform</li>
<li>    No centralized operator, job board, or trusted intermediary</li>
<li>    Anyone can build an app, mint a parcel, or pick one up</li>
<li>    Payments settle only if both sides confirm (or finalize automatically)</li>
<li>    Protocol fee is immutable, finalizer tip is capped, all logic is deterministic</li>
</ul>

<p>No pricing engine.<br>
No identity layer.<br>
No assignment logic.<br>
Just neutral rails.</p>

<h3>
  
  
  Use Cases
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    P2P delivery during commutes (side income for regular people)</li>
<li>    Local business delivery without contracts or apps</li>
<li>    Decentralized logistics experiments (DAOs, disaster relief, rural mobility)</li>
<li>    Trust-minimized gig networks in low-trust regions</li>
</ul>

<h3>
  
  
  Economics
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    Protocol fee: immutable (e.g. 0.5%)</li>
<li>    Platform fee: configurable, set by each integrator</li>
<li>    Finalizer tip: small % (e.g. 0.05%), capped</li>
<li>    DeDe does not reduce escrow value over time (no built-in decay)</li>
<li>    Settlement is voluntary; payment is conditional on mutual confirmation</li>
</ul>




<h3>
  
  
  Why Ethereum?
</h3>

<p>DeDe works best when:</p>

<ul>
<li>    The settlement layer is public, neutral, auditable</li>
<li>    Applications are permissionless and forkable</li>
<li>    The infrastructure isn’t subject to any central actor’s control</li>
</ul>

<h3>
  
  
  Deployed to Ethereum Mainnet
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    <strong>ParcelCore</strong>: 0xeF1D4970c3B988840B13761Ec4FBb85106d789F8</li>
<li>    <strong>Escrow</strong>: 0x834317eFB2E6eE362a63474837398086cC302934</li>
<li>    <strong>AStarSignerRegistryStaked</strong>: 0x311A4c3Ed79D4467C55dd7CEE0C731501DF3f161</li>
<li>    <strong>protocolTreasury</strong>: 0x9C34d6a6BF1257A9e36758583cDC36F4cE2fA78F</li>
</ul>

<h3>
  
  
  Related Work / Inspiration
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    Matrix (as infra for decentralized messaging)</li>
<li>    Monero (for privacy guarantees in adversarial environments)</li>
<li>    Tor / IPFS / Nostr (for neutrality under pressure)</li>
<li>    Ethereum itself (as settlement infrastructure)</li>
</ul>

<h3>
  
  
  Future Directions
</h3>

<ul>
<li>    zkDeliveryProofs (optional: SNARKs for delivery receipt)</li>
<li>    L2 deployment for micropayments</li>
<li>    Local delivery DAO coordination</li>
<li>    Indexers / GraphQL APIs / “DeDeScan” explorer</li>
<li>    Mobile UX kits and white-label apps</li>
<li>    Monero bridge / atomic swaps for cross-chain delivery privacy</li>
</ul>




<h3>
  
  
  Further Reading
</h3>

<p><a href="https://github.com/pablo-chacon/dede-protocol/blob/main/WHITEPAPER.md" rel="noopener noreferrer">DeDe Protocol Whitepaper</a></p>

<p><a href="https://github.com/pablo-chacon/dede-protocol" rel="noopener noreferrer">DeDe Protocol Repository</a></p>

<p><a href="https://medium.com/@ekarlsson66/dede-the-delivery-rail-for-a-free-world-e7be944b90fc" rel="noopener noreferrer">Medium Story</a></p>

تم تقديم بروتوكول DeDe كحل بسيط قائم على Ethereum مصمم للتسليم الفعلي بدون ثقة، مما يتيح إنشاء شبكات تسليم من نظير إلى نظير دون الحاجة إلى السيطرة المركزية أو الوسطاء. يركز هذا البروتوكول على توفير طبقة تسوية قابلة للبرمجة تسهل تأكيد التسليم وخدمات الضمان، مما يعالج الثغرات في الأنظمة الحالية مثل Pix في البرازيل، التي تقدم مدفوعات فورية ولكن تفتقر إلى هذه الميزات.

Se ha presentado el Protocolo DeDe como una solución mínima basada en Ethereum, diseñada para la entrega física sin confianza, permitiendo la creación de redes de entrega de igual a igual sin necesidad de control central o intermediarios. Este protocolo se centra en proporcionar una capa de liquidación programable que facilita la confirmación de entrega y los servicios de custodia, abordando las lagunas en sistemas existentes como Pix en Brasil, que ofrece pagos instantáneos pero carece de estas características.

Le protocole DeDe a été introduit comme une solution minimale basée sur Ethereum, conçue pour la livraison physique sans confiance, permettant la création de réseaux de livraison peer-to-peer sans besoin de contrôle central ou d'intermédiaires. Ce protocole se concentre sur la fourniture d'une couche de règlement programmable qui facilite la confirmation de livraison et les services d'entiercement, comblant les lacunes des systèmes existants comme Pix au Brésil, qui offre des paiements instantanés mais manque de ces fonctionnalités.

DeDe Protocol has been introduced as a minimal, Ethereum-based solution designed for trustless physical delivery, enabling the creation of peer-to-peer delivery networks without the need for central control or intermediaries. This protocol focuses on providing a programmable settlement layer that facilitates delivery confirmation and escrow services, addressing gaps in existing systems like Brazil's Pix, which offers instant payments but lacks these features.

Smart Timing for Mining: A Deep Learning Framework for Bitcoin Hardware ROI Prediction

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