The 2026 Oscars race is already heating up, with big names like George Clooney, Jennifer Lopez, Julia Roberts, and Wagner Moura emerging as early contenders. Variety’s awards expert Clayton Davis is tracking the buzz, offering predictions based on industry momentum—not personal picks. It’s a sneak peek at who might dominate the conversation when awards season rolls around.

Editor’s Note: Awards chatter starts way before the red carpet—this list gives us a heads-up on which A-listers and projects are gaining traction. For film fans, it’s like getting the playbook early: you can follow these names now, spot the dark horses, and see how the race evolves. Plus, it’s a reminder that Hollywood’s hype machine never really sleeps.

Believe it or not, we're already halfway through the eligibility window for the 2025 Oscars—and shockingly, only one film released so far this year is considered a lock for a Best Picture nomination. The article doesn’t name it outright (classic awards-season tease), but it’s clearly hinting at a standout contender that’s already generating serious buzz. The rest of the field? Wide open, with plenty of heavy hitters still to come in the back half of 2025.

Editor’s Note: Oscars prognostication is a year-round sport for cinephiles, and this piece taps into that obsession. It’s a reality check: despite a crowded release calendar, very few films have made an undeniable splash yet. The takeaway? Either 2025’s first half was unusually weak for awards bait, or we’re in for a chaotic second-half scramble as studios push their contenders. Either way, buckle up—the campaign trail is just warming up.

The Oscars race is heating up, and early predictions suggest major studios like Netflix, Neon, and Warner Bros. could dominate the Best Picture category with films like Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Variety’s awards expert Clayton Davis breaks down the current frontrunners, though these picks are based on industry buzz—not personal favorites.

Editor’s Note: Awards season is always a mix of speculation and strategy, and this early peek at potential contenders gives us a sense of which studios are positioning themselves for Oscar gold. If you love tracking Hollywood’s biggest night, this is your first clue about which films might be making waves—and which studios are betting big on prestige.